Bushfires

Understanding bushfire behaviour in changing climate

Project size (& length): 25 or 50

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human settlements and environmental assets. They can cause ignition of structures by firebrands, radiation or direct flame contact and transition of fire into Wildland-Urban Interface area (the area where structures such as houses meet or overlap with wildland or vegetation fuels). In addition, the impact of changing climates creates new challenges for researchers and fire managers. Fire seasons are becoming longer, wildfires are becoming bigger and more intense resulting in megafires.

These new challenges require innovative and novel approaches to predict wildfire spread through the landscape and the associated impacts to communities. Laboratory and field experiments help us understand how fuel, weather, terrain and spatial scale interact and influence ignition, spread and fire intensity. This knowledge is used to develop operational models to simulate wildfires, providing vital information to fire fighters, fire managers and the general public about fire behaviour, its impact on communities and biodiversity.

A number of projects are possible under the supervision of Dr Alex Filkov. These projects include but are not limited to:

Effects of fire intensity on flammability of live vegetation

Structural properties of live fuels and fire intensity are known to significantly affect flammability characteristics, such as time to ignition and consumption time. There is currently very little data on how different fire regimes affect the flammability of live vegetation. The project will focus on determining flammability characteristics for different types of live vegetation in low, moderate, and severe fire. During the project, student will collect live specimens and conduct a series of laboratory experiments using unique experimental equipment in Creswick Campus.

Fuel composition and heat of combustion

To estimate heat release during a bushfire, it is necessary to know the heat of combustion of different fuel. This information is not available for most Australian species. To understand this, a series of laboratory experiments will be conducted. Representative species of Victorian vegetation will be selected for the study. A student will measure the heat of combustion of fuels in the laboratory to assess their effect on fire intensity.

Firebrand Ignition of Fuels

Firebrands are widely recognized as a key factor in the propagation of wildland fires. They are present in all wildland fires and can ignite spot fires up to several kilometres from the main fire front. This project seeks to determine the mechanism of ignition of building materials and vegetation by firebrands and to identify key properties that define their propensity to ignite when subjected to firebrand showers. The project will involve laboratory experiments.

Development of a Flow Conditioning System for a Large-Scale   Combustion Wind Tunnel

The FLARE Wildfire Research Group in the Faculty of Science is coordinating the construction of a large combustion wind tunnel capable of simulating extreme bushfire conditions. The goal of the project is to design and test a flow conditioning system to achieve a 5% level of turbulence in the test chamber of the tunnel. Students will build a small-scale replica of the tunnel, calculate different configurations of mesh and honeycomb sections to achieve the required level of turbulence, and test them.

Dr Alex Filkov, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences
alexander.filkov@unimelb.edu.au

Towards a shared understanding of future fire

Project size (& length): 25 or 50

We have entered a new era which some call the Pyrocene. It is a time of escalating and increasingly complex interactions between humans and fire. If we are to live with fire, we must understand it and how it is changing in response to both global warming and our own efforts to manage it. Concepts like the fire regime, the four switches, and risk are all helpful in navigating this. Understanding, however, is not enough. The only way out of the “Valley of Death” between research and impact is through meaningful engagement with decision makers and the public. Through close links with fire managers across the country, your research stands a chance of not just being read, but actually being used.

Our research projects include:

Integrated assessments of climate change impacts on wildfire risk

Excellent progress has been made in modelling individual drivers of wildfire: fuel, dryness, weather and ignitions. However, we lack integrated assessments that bring these factors together in a form that fire managers are able to work with and communities are able to understand. This project would be a review focusing on high quality, scientifically robust and clear communications.

Climate change impacts on ignition likelihood

There are many different ignition sources, which makes modelling climate change impacts difficult. In this project we will review the literature to understand the drivers of different types of ignition in different regions and assess the likely effects of unmitigated climate change, including opportunities for management interventions.

Filling in the gaps for a critical driver of flammability

Vapour pressure deficit is a measure of atmospheric thirst and is strongly linked to fuel moisture i.e., the availability of vegetation to burn. We currently lack a strong grasp of the spatiotemporal variation of this important climate variable, for both the observational record and under climate change. In this project you will have the opportunity to fill this gap by characterising trends and regional patterns in VPD for the historical record, under climate change, or both.

Cost benefit analysis of wildfire

While understanding fire and risk goes a long way, it’s only when you get people in the hip pocket that they pay attention. Many have tried to quantify the costs of wildfire and the benefits of fire management, but none have done justice to the complexity of fire, particularly in light of emergent understandings of fire as affecting a wide range of human, economic and natural values. This project is an opportunity to review the literature and methodologies and set the direction for research – and investment - into the future.

Prioritising fire management actions at fine scales

We have methods for quantifying regional variation in the effectiveness of prescribed burning and other fire management actions at mitigating a range of risks, but these insights tend to be at the landscape scale. There is a knowledge gap when it comes to identifying specific parts of the landscape that when treated may reduce risk to specific assets within that landscape. In this project you will analyse fire behaviour model output to prioritise prescribed burning at the scale of individual burn blocks.

Wildland Urban Interface, asset configuration and wildfire risk

We have proven methodologies for quantifying the regional variation in the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating a range of risks, but we still lack an understanding of the relationship between the arrangement of assets within a landscape and overall risk. This is particularly so for the evolving boundary between people and vegetation known as the Wildland Urban Interface. In this project you will work on existing and potentially novel methods for characterising this interface and its relationship to wildfire risk.

Climate change and the wildfire science-policy interface – domestic and international

In this project you will review current policy settings with respect to climate change and wildfire in Australia. Because Australia is far from the only country affected by wildfire and climate change, there is also an opportunity to review how climate change and wildfire play out at the science-policy interface in other fire-prone countries.

Doughnut Pyronomics

The Doughnut Economics framework is currently receiving global interest as an alternative model for describing the social foundations and planetary boundaries of our economic system. Wildfire is an excellent case study for this framework, given its complexity and contested nature. In this project you will develop a case study of ‘Doughnut Pyronomics’, the theoretical foundations and boundaries we need to consider for coexisting with fire in the 21^st century.

Dr Hamish Clarke, FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences
hamish.clarke@unimelb.edu.au